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Criciuma vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Criciuma
Criciuma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ABC
ABC
11/8/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 35Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Criciuma55%
×Draw27%
ABC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma
1.45
ABC
0.72

Criciuma creates 101% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 19 away

creates per match

Criciuma
1.37
ABC
0.68

allows per match

Criciuma
0.75
ABC
1.53

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw
81%
Criciuma or ABC
73%
Draw or ABC
45%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+
28%
ABC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals
77%
Criciuma 2+ goals
42%
Criciuma 3+ goals
18%
ABC 1+ goals
51%
ABC 2+ goals
16%
ABC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)
75%
ABC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

ABC away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + ABC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

ABC attack 0.68 + Criciuma defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Criciuma scores more
55%
level
27%
ABC scores more
19%

Criciuma at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Criciuma vs ABC

Criciuma beat ABC 1-0 in Serie B on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.