Criciuma U20 3–2 Marcilio Dias U20: Result & Stats

Criciuma U20

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Marcilio Dias U20

4/21/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 6Centro de Treinamentos do Criciúma Esporte Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Criciuma U2057%

×Draw21%

Marcilio Dias U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Criciuma U20Expected goals in this matchMarcilio Dias U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.21

Criciuma U20

2.06

Marcilio Dias U20

1.21

Criciuma U20 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

2.44

creates per match

1.79

0.63

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Criciuma U20

2.44

Marcilio Dias U20

1.79

allows per match

Criciuma U20

0.63

Marcilio Dias U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma U20+0.00on par

Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma U20 ↓

Marcilio Dias U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Criciuma U20 or draw

78%

Criciuma U20 or Marcilio Dias U20

79%

Draw or Marcilio Dias U20

43%

Winning margin

Criciuma U20 wins by 2+

34%

Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Criciuma U20 1+ goals

87%

Criciuma U20 2+ goals

61%

Criciuma U20 3+ goals

34%

Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals

70%

Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals

34%

Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)

72%

Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma U20 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Marcilio Dias U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma U20 attack 2.44 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.06

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.79 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Criciuma U20 scores more

57%

level

21%

Marcilio Dias U20 scores more

22%

Criciuma U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff