Criciuma U20 1–0 Ituano U20: Result & Stats

Criciuma U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ituano U20

Hiago Alves 36' (pen)

5/14/2025

Brasileiro U20 B · 1st Phase - 7Centro de Treinamentos do Criciúma Esporte Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Criciuma U2035%

×Draw30%

Ituano U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Criciuma U20Expected goals in this matchItuano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.07

Criciuma U20

1.05

Ituano U20

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

1.75

0.40

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Criciuma U20

1.60

Ituano U20

1.75

allows per match

Criciuma U20

0.40

Ituano U20

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma U20+0.00on par

Ituano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma U20 ↓

Ituano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Criciuma U20 or draw

64%

Criciuma U20 or Ituano U20

70%

Draw or Ituano U20

65%

Winning margin

Criciuma U20 wins by 2+

13%

Ituano U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Criciuma U20 1+ goals

65%

Criciuma U20 2+ goals

28%

Criciuma U20 3+ goals

9%

Ituano U20 1+ goals

66%

Ituano U20 2+ goals

29%

Ituano U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Ituano U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma U20 attack 1.60 + Ituano U20 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ituano U20 attack 1.75 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Criciuma U20 scores more

35%

level

30%

Ituano U20 scores more

36%

Ituano U20 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Hiago AlvesPenalty

66'

Kaua Wendel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff