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Crewe vs Wigan — League One 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wigan
Wigan
W. Keane 53'
J. Magennis 43'
3/15/2022League OneLeague One · Round 24Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe34%
×Draw26%
Wigan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.29
Wigan
1.45

Wigan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 117 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.26
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Crewe
1.58
Wigan
1.33

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
59%
Crewe or Wigan
74%
Draw or Wigan
66%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
15%
Wigan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
37%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%
Wigan 1+ goals
77%
Wigan 2+ goals
42%
Wigan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
45%
Wigan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Wigan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wigan attack 1.32 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more
34%
level
26%
Wigan scores more
41%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
J. MagennisWiganWigan · F
7.7

Match Events

43'
J. Magennis↳ M. Power
53'
W. Keane↳ J. Bennett
62'
Joe Bennett
63'
Tendayi Darikwa
65'
R. Griffiths← R. Harper
65'
L. Murphy← M. Williams
69'
T. Pearce← J. Bennett
78'
C. Porter← J. Lundstram
78'
G. Edwards← S. Humphrys
87'
G. Shinnie← T. Naylor
89'
Chris Porter

Possession

49%Crewe

Shots

7Crewe

Pass accuracy

50%Crewe

Statistics

CreweWigan
Overview
49%Possession51%
7Total Shots13
2Corners5
14Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots13
2On Target4
3Off Target4
2Blocked5
1Inside Box6
6Outside Box7
Passing
49%Possession51%
373Total Passes388
264Accurate Passes276
71%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Crewe vs Wigan

Wigan beat Crewe 2-0 in League One on March 15, 2022.

Goals: J. Magennis (43'), W. Keane (53').

Wigan controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.