Crewe 0–2 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stockport County

10/24/2023

League Two · Round 15Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Crewe35%

×Draw25%

Stockport County40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.46

Crewe

1.35

Stockport County

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 47 away

1.57

creates per match

1.72

1.19

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Crewe

1.57

Stockport County

1.72

allows per match

Crewe

1.19

Stockport County

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

60%

Crewe or Stockport County

75%

Draw or Stockport County

65%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

16%

Stockport County wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

74%

Crewe 2+ goals

39%

Crewe 3+ goals

15%

Stockport County 1+ goals

77%

Stockport County 2+ goals

43%

Stockport County 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

47%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.57 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more

35%

level

25%

Stockport County scores more

40%

Stockport County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff