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Crewe vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Alexandra Stadium
Big match
46%
Crewe
model favours
46%26%27%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Crewe46%
×Draw26%
Rochdale27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.46
Rochdale
1.06

Crewe creates 38% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 56 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.56
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Crewe
1.18
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
73%
Crewe or Rochdale
74%
Draw or Rochdale
54%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
23%
Rochdale wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
77%
Crewe 2+ goals
43%
Crewe 3+ goals
18%
Rochdale 1+ goals
65%
Rochdale 2+ goals
29%
Rochdale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
63%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crewe scores more
46%
level
26%
Rochdale scores more
27%

Crewe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Rochdale
Balanced
50%Possession52%
70%Pass accuracy70%
11.3ShotsBiggest gap10.4
1.44xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweRochdale

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Crewe
4
Draws
3
Rochdale
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 67%
1–12–11–13–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Rochdale

October 17, 2026: Crewe take on Rochdale in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Rochdale at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.