Crewe 0–3 Rochdale: Result & Stats | League #46

Crewe

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Rochdale

C. Andrew 88'

P. Vincenti 64'

M. Done 42'

9/2/2014

League #46 · 1st RoundAlexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crewe43%

×Draw21%

Rochdale37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.96

Crewe

2.13

Rochdale

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

1.25

2.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Crewe

3.00

Rochdale

1.25

allows per match

Crewe

2.67

Rochdale

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

63%

Crewe or Rochdale

79%

Draw or Rochdale

57%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

24%

Rochdale wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

88%

Crewe 2+ goals

63%

Crewe 3+ goals

35%

Rochdale 1+ goals

86%

Rochdale 2+ goals

58%

Rochdale 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

54%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 3.00 + Rochdale defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Rochdale attack 1.25 + Crewe defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crewe scores more

43%

level

21%

Rochdale scores more

37%

Crewe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. Done

46'

T. Audel← C. Atkinson

51'

64'

70'

71'

82'

87'

C. Saunders← V. Oliver

88'

C. Andrew

Crewe

Rochdale

22

5

2

29

17

12

16

⚽

▼

Done

7

⚽

Vincenti

14

▼

Héry

24

Allen

45

▼

1

6

2

7

3

18

42

10

▼

Inman

8

▼

Atkinson

17

Waters

9

▼

Oliver

46'▲T. Audel←▼C. Atkinson

71'▲G. Cooper←▼B. Inman

87'▲C. Saunders←▼V. Oliver

Crewe substitutes

15Audel11Cooper14Saunders13Garratt21Molyneux

51'▲C. Camps←▼S. Fenelon

70'▲C. Andrew←▼M. Done

82'▲R. Bennett←▼B. Héry

Rochdale substitutes

28Camps9Andrew3Bennett21Musangu25Rose

Match Recap: Crewe vs Rochdale

Rochdale beat Crewe 3-0 in League #46 on September 2, 2014.

Goals: M. Done (42'), P. Vincenti (64'), C. Andrew (88').

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.

Crewe vs Rochdale — League #46 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Crewe vs Rochdale