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Crewe vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
15:00
Port Vale
Port Vale
2/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Alexandra Stadium
38%
Port Vale
model favours
36%26%38%

Crewe score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Crewe36%
×Draw26%
Port Vale38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.29
Port Vale
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.40
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Crewe
1.26
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
62%
Crewe or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
37%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
48%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.40 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Crewe defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crewe scores more
36%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
38%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • 46% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Port Vale
Balanced
50%Possession50%
70%Pass accuracyBiggest gap68%
11.0Shots11.0
1.29xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CrewePort Vale

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Crewe
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Avg goals: 1BTTS: 25%
0–11–10–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDLL
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Port Vale — Match Preview

Crewe face Port Vale on February 6, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Port Vale at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.