Crewe 0–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

11/2/2019

League Two · Round 17Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Crewe42%

×Draw27%

Port Vale32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Crewe

1.38

Port Vale

1.17

Crewe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 118 away

1.59

creates per match

1.16

1.19

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Crewe

1.59

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Crewe

1.19

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

68%

Crewe or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

58%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

19%

Port Vale wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

75%

Crewe 2+ goals

40%

Crewe 3+ goals

16%

Port Vale 1+ goals

69%

Port Vale 2+ goals

33%

Port Vale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

57%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crewe scores more

42%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

32%

Crewe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff