Crewe 2–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats | League One

Crewe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Peterborough

C. Kirk 41'

H. Pickering 29'

11/14/2020

League One · Round 12Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe34%

×Draw25%

Peterborough41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.52

Crewe

1.36

Peterborough

1.52

Peterborough creates 12% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 157 away

1.26

creates per match

1.46

1.58

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Crewe

1.26

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Crewe

1.58

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

59%

Crewe or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

66%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

15%

Peterborough wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

74%

Crewe 2+ goals

39%

Crewe 3+ goals

16%

Peterborough 1+ goals

78%

Peterborough 2+ goals

45%

Peterborough 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

45%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more

34%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

41%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Kirk

Crewe · F

8.0

Match Events

29'

H. Pickering

41'

C. Kirk

46'

F. Blake-Tracy← N. Mason

54'

70'

76'

83'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrewePeterborough

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots10

4Corners1

9Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

508Total Passes404

403Accurate Passes302

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Offsides1