Crewe 0–6 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Oxford United

S. Winnall 84'

C. Brannagan 50'

B. Barker 47'

E. Moore 45+2'

J. Henry 40'

J. Ruffels 36'

4/10/2021

League One · Round 41Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe34%

×Draw25%

Oxford United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.47

Crewe

1.32

Oxford United

1.47

Oxford United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 135 away

1.26

creates per match

1.36

1.58

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Crewe

1.26

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Crewe

1.58

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

59%

Crewe or Oxford United

75%

Draw or Oxford United

66%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

15%

Oxford United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

73%

Crewe 2+ goals

38%

Crewe 3+ goals

15%

Oxford United 1+ goals

77%

Oxford United 2+ goals

43%

Oxford United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

45%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more

34%

level

25%

Oxford United scores more

41%

Oxford United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

B. Barker

Oxford United · F

8.7

Match Events

36'

40'

45+2'

46'

46'

N. Wood-Gordon← O. Lancashire

47'

B. Barker

50'

C. Brannagan

53'

S. Walker← O. Dale

53'

A. Evans← C. Kirk

53'

L. Offord← D. Daniels

61'

S. Winnall← M. Taylor

62'

J. Hanson← S. Long

62'

D. Agyei← E. Lee

62'

O. Shodipo← B. Barker

80'

A. Forde← J. Henry

84'

S. Winnall↳ D. Agyei

87'

Omar Beckles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweOxford

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots18

0Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots18

1On Target11

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box14

1Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

412Total Passes511

304Accurate Passes405

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1