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Crewe vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
8/5/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Crewe39%
×Draw26%
Mansfield Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.36
Mansfield Town
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 136 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.59
Mansfield Town
1.38

allows per match

Crewe
1.19
Mansfield Town
1.13

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
65%
Crewe or Mansfield Town
74%
Draw or Mansfield Town
61%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
18%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
72%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
37%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
53%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
39%
level
26%
Mansfield Town scores more
35%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crewe 2–2 Mansfield Town

Crewe and Mansfield Town drew 2-2 in League Two on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.