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Crewe vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
12/14/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.36
Mansfield Town
1.21

Crewe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 141 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.56
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Crewe
1.18
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
67%
Crewe or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
19%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
34%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
55%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
33%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crewe 1–1 Mansfield Town

Crewe and Mansfield Town drew 1-1 in League Two on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.