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Crewe vs Ipswich — League One 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ipswich
Ipswich
T. Lowery 86'
C. Chaplin 45+1'
4/23/2022League OneLeague One · Round 45Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe30%
×Draw26%
Ipswich44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.14
Ipswich
1.43

Ipswich creates 25% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.26
Ipswich
1.27

allows per match

Crewe
1.58
Ipswich
1.01

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
56%
Crewe or Ipswich
74%
Draw or Ipswich
70%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
12%
Ipswich wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
68%
Crewe 2+ goals
32%
Crewe 3+ goals
11%
Ipswich 1+ goals
76%
Ipswich 2+ goals
42%
Ipswich 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
41%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crewe scores more
30%
level
26%
Ipswich scores more
44%

Ipswich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
C. ChaplinIpswichIpswich · F
8.0

Match Events

14'
James Norwood
33'
Tyreeq Bakinson
40'
Dominic Thompson
45+1'
C. Chaplin↳ K. Vincent-Young
53'
O. Finney← R. Alebiosu
60'
Tom Lowery
63'
R. Griffiths← L. Murphy
65'
Regan Griffiths
70'
B. Celina← J. Pigott
70'
I. El Mizouni← K. Vincent-Young
84'
B. Sambou← M. Williams
86'
T. Lowery
90+5'
Billy Sass-Davies
90+3'
M. Bonne← C. Chaplin

Possession

41%Crewe

Shots

11Crewe

Pass accuracy

47%Crewe

Statistics

CreweIpswich
Overview
41%Possession59%
11Total Shots18
4Corners6
9Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots18
4On Target7
5Off Target5
2Blocked6
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box11
Passing
41%Possession59%
334Total Passes476
230Accurate Passes372
69%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Crewe 1 – 1 Ipswich

Crewe and Ipswich drew 1-1 in League One on April 23, 2022.

Goals: C. Chaplin (45+1'), T. Lowery (86').

Ipswich controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.