Crewe 0–0 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Harrogate Town

2/17/2024

League Two · Round 34Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Crewe46%

×Draw25%

Harrogate Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Crewe

1.52

Harrogate Town

1.15

Crewe creates 32% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 138 away

1.59

creates per match

1.11

1.19

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Crewe

1.59

Harrogate Town

1.11

allows per match

Crewe

1.19

Harrogate Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

71%

Crewe or Harrogate Town

75%

Draw or Harrogate Town

54%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

23%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

78%

Crewe 2+ goals

45%

Crewe 3+ goals

20%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

68%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

32%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

61%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Harrogate Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Harrogate Town attack 1.11 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crewe scores more

46%

level

25%

Harrogate Town scores more

29%

Crewe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff