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Crewe vs Harrogate Town — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
C. Baker-Richardson 77'
K. Mellor 45+3'
D. Agyei 44'
8/6/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Crewe50%
×Draw22%
Harrogate Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.94
Harrogate Town
1.38

Crewe creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Harrogate Town
1.13

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Harrogate Town
2.35

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Harrogate Town-0.46scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Harrogate Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
73%
Crewe or Harrogate Town
78%
Draw or Harrogate Town
50%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
29%
Harrogate Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
86%
Crewe 2+ goals
58%
Crewe 3+ goals
30%
Harrogate Town 1+ goals
75%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
40%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
65%
Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Harrogate Town defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Harrogate Town attack 1.13 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crewe scores more
50%
level
22%
Harrogate Town scores more
27%

Crewe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. MellorCreweCrewe · D
7.7

Match Events

44'
D. Agyei↳ Z. Williams
45+3'
K. Mellor↳ C. Ainley
61'
C. Colkett← Z. Williams
65'
Charlie Colkett
68'
C. Baker-Richardson← L. Brook
68'
J. Muldoon← J. Austerfield
77'
C. Baker-Richardson
81'
Tariq Uwakwe
84'
T. Leshabela← C. Ainley
84'
R. Griffiths← D. Agyei
84'
O. Finney← B. Sambou

Possession

48%Crewe

Shots

12Crewe

Pass accuracy

50%Crewe

Statistics

CreweHarrogate
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots10
5Corners1
12Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target3
4Off Target5
3Blocked2
6Inside Box8
6Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
383Total Passes410
275Accurate Passes292
72%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Crewe vs Harrogate Town

Crewe beat Harrogate Town 3-0 in League Two on August 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Agyei (44'), K. Mellor (45+3'), C. Baker-Richardson (77').

Harrogate Town controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.