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Crewe vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
15:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
11/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Alexandra Stadium
Big match
44%
Grimsby
model favours
32%24%44%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Crewe32%
×Draw24%
Grimsby44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.36
Grimsby
1.65

Grimsby creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Grimsby
1.67

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Grimsby
1.20

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
56%
Crewe or Grimsby
76%
Draw or Grimsby
68%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
14%
Grimsby wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%
Grimsby 1+ goals
81%
Grimsby 2+ goals
49%
Grimsby 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
42%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crewe scores more
32%
level
24%
Grimsby scores more
44%

Grimsby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crewe
Balanced
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
50%Possession52%
70%Pass accuracy68%
11.3Shots12.6
1.44xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweGrimsby

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

4
Crewe
0
Draws
5
Grimsby
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 33%
2–33–22–02–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Grimsby
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Grimsby

November 28, 2026: Crewe take on Grimsby in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Grimsby at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.