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Crewe vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
CANC
00:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
4/18/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 45Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crewe31%
×Draw24%
Grimsby45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.32
Grimsby
1.63

Grimsby creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Grimsby
1.62

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Grimsby
1.11

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
55%
Crewe or Grimsby
76%
Draw or Grimsby
69%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
13%
Grimsby wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
73%
Crewe 2+ goals
38%
Crewe 3+ goals
15%
Grimsby 1+ goals
80%
Grimsby 2+ goals
48%
Grimsby 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
41%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.32

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crewe scores more
31%
level
24%
Grimsby scores more
45%

Grimsby at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Grimsby — Match Preview

Crewe face Grimsby on April 18, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Grimsby at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.