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Crewe vs GAP Connah S Quay FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Crewe
Crewe
FT
3 – 1
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
8/4/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Alexandra Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crewe48%
×Draw26%
GAP Connah S Quay FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.06

Crewe creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.73
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67

allows per match

Crewe
1.45
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.33

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
GAP Connah S Quay FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

GAP Connah S Quay FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
74%
Crewe or GAP Connah S Quay FC
74%
Draw or GAP Connah S Quay FC
52%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
24%
GAP Connah S Quay FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
78%
Crewe 2+ goals
45%
Crewe 3+ goals
20%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1+ goals
65%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 2+ goals
29%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
65%
GAP Connah S Quay FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

GAP Connah S Quay FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.73 + GAP Connah S Quay FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

GAP Connah S Quay FC attack 0.67 + Crewe defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crewe scores more
48%
level
26%
GAP Connah S Quay FC scores more
26%

Crewe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crewe vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

Crewe beat GAP Connah S Quay FC 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 4, 2020.

The match was played at Alexandra Park in Nantwich, Cheshire.