Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Crewe vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
M. Helm 21'
2/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe41%
×Draw25%
Fleetwood Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.54
Fleetwood Town
1.40

Crewe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Fleetwood Town
1.15

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Fleetwood Town
1.54

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
65%
Crewe or Fleetwood Town
75%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
59%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
79%
Crewe 2+ goals
45%
Crewe 3+ goals
20%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
75%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
41%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
54%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more
41%
level
25%
Fleetwood Town scores more
35%

Crewe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. NealFleetwood TownFleetwood Town · M
7.9

Match Events

21'
M. Helm
32'
Josh Powell
46'
J. March← O. Lunt
46'
M. Clark← J. Powell
57'
M. Demetriou← M. Holicek
67'
Ethan Ennis
68'
O. Bogle← T. O'Reilly
75'
C. Evans← W. Davies
82'
Shaun Rooney
83'
L. Moore← J. Powell
90+2'
M. Virtue-Thick← E. Bonds

Possession

52%Crewe

Shots

7Crewe

Pass accuracy

51%Crewe

Statistics

CreweFleetwood
Overview
52%Possession48%
7Total Shots17
3Corners5
7Fouls18
Shots
7Total Shots17
1On Target5
2Off Target9
5Blocked3
6Inside Box10
1Outside Box7
Passing
52%Possession48%
364Total Passes351
262Accurate Passes239
72%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls18
0Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Crewe vs Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town beat Crewe 1-0 in League Two on February 17, 2026.

Goals: M. Helm (21').

Crewe controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 17.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe.