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Crewe vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
5/2/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crewe31%
×Draw25%
Cambridge United44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.27
Cambridge United
1.56

Cambridge United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Cambridge United
1.49

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Cambridge United
1.01

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Cambridge United-0.31scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
56%
Crewe or Cambridge United
75%
Draw or Cambridge United
69%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
13%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
36%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
79%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
46%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
41%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Cambridge United defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crewe scores more
31%
level
25%
Cambridge United scores more
44%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41
I. LawlorCreweCrewe · G
8.2

Match Events

32'
Sullay Kaikai
46'
E. Nevitt← L. Appere
53'
Stan Dancey
53'
James Gibbons
62'
L. Moore← C. Thomas
74'
J. Brophy← S. Kaikai
79'
A. Pond← S. Dancey
82'
S. Tracey← T. O'Reilly
82'
C. Finney← R. Hutchinson
83'
A. Thibaut← E. Tezgel
84'
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu

Possession

61%Crewe

Shots

7Crewe

Pass accuracy

57%Crewe

Statistics

CreweCambridge
Overview
61%Possession39%
7Total Shots10
0.62Expected Goals (xG)2.69
8Corners6
12Fouls20
Shots
7Total Shots10
2On Target5
3Off Target2
2Blocked3
5Inside Box9
2Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
359Total Passes235
259Accurate Passes130
72%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls20
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

League Two: Crewe 0–0 Cambridge United

Crewe and Cambridge United drew 0-0 in League Two on May 2, 2026.

Crewe controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe.