Crewe 2–3 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cambridge United

9/14/2019

League Two · Round 8Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crewe31%

×Draw25%

Cambridge United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.51

Crewe

1.24

Cambridge United

1.51

Cambridge United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.53

creates per match

1.38

1.64

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Crewe

1.53

Cambridge United

1.38

allows per match

Crewe

1.64

Cambridge United

0.95

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par

Cambridge United-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

57%

Crewe or Cambridge United

75%

Draw or Cambridge United

69%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

13%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

71%

Crewe 2+ goals

35%

Crewe 3+ goals

13%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

78%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

44%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

42%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Cambridge United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cambridge United attack 1.38 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crewe scores more

31%

level

25%

Cambridge United scores more

43%

Cambridge United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff