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Crewe vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
14:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
10/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Alexandra Stadium
Big match
40%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
35%25%40%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crewe35%
×Draw25%
Bristol Rovers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.38
Bristol Rovers
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Bristol Rovers
1.35

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Bristol Rovers
1.23

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
60%
Crewe or Bristol Rovers
75%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
65%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
16%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
75%
Crewe 2+ goals
40%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
46%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
35%
level
25%
Bristol Rovers scores more
40%

Bristol Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crewe
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
50%Possession52%
70%Pass accuracy66%
11.4ShotsBiggest gap12.1
1.44xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
Crewe
1
Draws
2
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 71%
1–21–12–41–03–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers — Match Preview

Crewe face Bristol Rovers on October 3, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Bristol Rovers at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.