Crewe 1–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bristol Rovers

E. Tezgel 9'

C. Morton 12'

12/19/2025

League Two · Round 21Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crewe35%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.50

Crewe

1.38

Bristol Rovers

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.53

creates per match

1.35

1.64

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Crewe

1.53

Bristol Rovers

1.35

allows per match

Crewe

1.64

Bristol Rovers

1.23

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par

Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

60%

Crewe or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

65%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

16%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

75%

Crewe 2+ goals

40%

Crewe 3+ goals

16%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

46%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more

35%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

40%

Bristol Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Connolly

Crewe · D

7.7

Match Events

9'

E. Tezgel↳ R. Hutchinson

12'

C. Morton↳ A. Kilgour

30'

Adrien Thibaut

30'

Clinton Mola

33'

D. Rankine← E. Tezgel

36'

50'

57'

60'

60'

73'

R. Sotiriou← L. Thomas

73'

J. Cotterill← A. Chang

77'

O. Dewsbury← C. Morton

81'

J. Powell← O. Lunt

81'

L. Moult← J. March

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweBristol

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots15

0.86Expected Goals (xG)2.00

3Corners3

10Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target3

4Off Target4

3Blocked8

8Inside Box7

2Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

237Total Passes417

142Accurate Passes320

60%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1