Crewe 4–0 Bala Town: Result & Stats

Crewe

4 – 0

Bala Town

8/8/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Alexandra Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crewe70%

×Draw18%

Bala Town13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchBala Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.89

Crewe

2.37

Bala Town

0.89

Crewe creates 166% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

1.73

creates per match

0.33

1.45

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Crewe

1.73

Bala Town

0.33

allows per match

Crewe

1.45

Bala Town

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Bala Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Bala Town →

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

87%

Crewe or Bala Town

82%

Draw or Bala Town

30%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

47%

Bala Town wins by 2+

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

91%

Crewe 2+ goals

68%

Crewe 3+ goals

42%

Bala Town 1+ goals

59%

Bala Town 2+ goals

22%

Bala Town 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

85%

Bala Town (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Bala Town away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.73 + Bala Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.37

Bala Town attack 0.33 + Crewe defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Crewe scores more

70%

level

18%

Bala Town scores more

13%

Crewe at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff