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Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
1/28/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Crewe43%
×Draw27%
AFC Wimbledon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

Crewe creates 24% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 70 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.59
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Crewe
1.19
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
70%
Crewe or AFC Wimbledon
73%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
57%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
38%
Crewe 3+ goals
15%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
66%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
29%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
59%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crewe scores more
43%
level
27%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%

Crewe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crewe 1–1 AFC Wimbledon

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon drew 1-1 in League Two on January 28, 2025.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.