Crewe 3–1 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

B. Sambou 90+8'

C. Long 62'

M. Mandron 60'

S. Cosgrove 19'

4/15/2022

League One · Round 43Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe41%

×Draw26%

AFC Wimbledon34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Crewe

1.42

AFC Wimbledon

1.27

Crewe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 109 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.58

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Crewe

1.26

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Crewe

1.58

AFC Wimbledon

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

66%

Crewe or AFC Wimbledon

74%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

19%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

76%

Crewe 2+ goals

41%

Crewe 3+ goals

17%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

72%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

36%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

55%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more

41%

level

26%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

34%

Crewe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

T. Lowery

Crewe · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

S. Cosgrove↳ J. Rudoni

43'

O. Finney← S. Kashket

53'

E. Kaja← A. Assal

60'

M. Mandron

62'

C. Long

65'

D. Osei Yaw← L. McCormick

80'

E. Chislett← N. Guinness-Walker

90+1'

B. Sambou← C. Long

90+8'

B. Sambou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweAFC

Overview

60%Possession40%

21Total Shots12

6Corners5

4Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots12

5On Target5

9Off Target4

7Blocked3

13Inside Box8

8Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

491Total Passes320

375Accurate Passes216

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

4Fouls12

1Offsides1