Crewe 0–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Accrington ST

M. Nottingham 17'

8/21/2021

League One · Round 4Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe42%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.27

Crewe

1.47

Accrington ST

1.27

Crewe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 107 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.58

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Crewe

1.26

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Crewe

1.58

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

67%

Crewe or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

58%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

20%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

77%

Crewe 2+ goals

43%

Crewe 3+ goals

18%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

72%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

36%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

56%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crewe scores more

42%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

33%

Crewe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Sykes

Accrington ST · D

8.2

Match Events

17'

38'

50'

55'

56'

57'

59'

62'

68'

72'

S. Sherring← D. Charles

78'

Kayne Ramsay

79'

C. McFadzean← K. Ramsay

84'

H. Perritt← M. Nottingham

85'

R. Griffiths← S. MacDonald

86'

89'

89'

90+7'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweAccrington

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots14

6Corners6

19Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target2

4Off Target6

3Blocked6

5Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

373Total Passes313

256Accurate Passes186

69%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls15

5Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2