Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Accrington ST vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
S. Conneely 56'
F. Sass 51'
4/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 41The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST34%
×Draw27%
Crewe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.19
Crewe
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.94
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.27
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Accrington ST+0.24scores more
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
61%
Accrington ST or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
66%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
14%
Crewe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
70%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
33%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
12%
Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
37%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
47%
Crewe (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Crewe attack 1.30 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more
34%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
39%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
S. ConneelyAccrington STAccrington ST · M
8.0

Match Events

30'
Josh March
45+2'
Freddie Sass
51'
F. Sass↳ S. Whalley
56'
S. Conneely↳ D. Martin
57'
O. Bogle← J. March
57'
J. Powell← M. Holicek
62'
Seamus Conneely
77'
A. Thibaut← E. Tezgel
78'
L. Coyle← S. Conneely
78'
P. Madden← T. Walton
87'
Donald Love

Possession

40%Accrington

Shots

14Accrington

Pass accuracy

47%Accrington

Statistics

AccringtonCrewe
Overview
40%Possession60%
14Total Shots3
4Corners7
16Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots3
4On Target1
6Off Target1
4Blocked1
9Inside Box2
5Outside Box1
Passing
40%Possession60%
267Total Passes393
173Accurate Passes290
65%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

League Two: Accrington ST 2–0 Crewe

Accrington ST beat Crewe 2-0 in League Two on April 3, 2026.

Goals: F. Sass (51'), S. Conneely (56').

Crewe controlled possession (60%) and registered 3 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Wham Stadium in Accrington.