Crewe Alexandra LFC W 0–5 West Bromwich Albion W

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

0 – 5

West Bromwich Albion W

11/14/2021

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundCumberland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crewe Alexandra LFC W9%

×Draw12%

West Bromwich Albion W78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crewe Alexandra LFC WExpected goals in this matchWest Bromwich Albion W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

3.38

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

1.15

West Bromwich Albion W

3.38

West Bromwich Albion W creates 194% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

3.75

3.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

0.67

West Bromwich Albion W

3.75

allows per match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

3.00

West Bromwich Albion W

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe Alexandra LFC W+0.00on par

West Bromwich Albion W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe Alexandra LFC W ↓

West Bromwich Albion W →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–14%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Crewe Alexandra LFC W or draw

22%

Crewe Alexandra LFC W or West Bromwich Albion W

88%

Draw or West Bromwich Albion W

91%

Winning margin

Crewe Alexandra LFC W wins by 2+

West Bromwich Albion W wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Crewe Alexandra LFC W 1+ goals

68%

Crewe Alexandra LFC W 2+ goals

32%

Crewe Alexandra LFC W 3+ goals

11%

West Bromwich Albion W 1+ goals

96%

West Bromwich Albion W 2+ goals

84%

West Bromwich Albion W 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Crewe Alexandra LFC W (draw refunded)

11%

West Bromwich Albion W (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Crewe Alexandra LFC W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

West Bromwich Albion W away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W attack 0.67 + West Bromwich Albion W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

West Bromwich Albion W attack 3.75 + Crewe Alexandra LFC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Crewe Alexandra LFC W scores more

level

12%

West Bromwich Albion W scores more

78%

West Bromwich Albion W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff