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Crewe Alexandra LFC W vs Boldmere St. Michaels W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Crewe Alexandra LFC W
Crewe Alexandra LFC W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Boldmere St. Michaels W
Boldmere St. Michaels W
10/26/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundAlexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crewe Alexandra LFC W23%
×Draw19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe Alexandra LFC W
1.48
Boldmere St. Michaels W
2.43

Boldmere St. Michaels W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W
0.67
Boldmere St. Michaels W
1.86

allows per match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W
3.00
Boldmere St. Michaels W
2.29

finishing

Crewe Alexandra LFC W+0.00on par
Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe Alexandra LFC W ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Crewe Alexandra LFC W or draw
42%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W or Boldmere St. Michaels W
81%
Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels W
77%

Winning margin

Crewe Alexandra LFC W wins by 2+
10%
Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Crewe Alexandra LFC W 1+ goals
77%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W 2+ goals
43%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W 3+ goals
19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals
91%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals
69%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Crewe Alexandra LFC W (draw refunded)
28%
Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe Alexandra LFC W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W attack 0.67 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 1.86 + Crewe Alexandra LFC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Crewe Alexandra LFC W scores more
23%
level
19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more
58%

Boldmere St. Michaels W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Boldmere St. Michaels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Crewe Alexandra LFC W 1–2 Boldmere St. Michaels W

Boldmere St. Michaels W beat Crewe Alexandra LFC W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe.