Crewe Alexandra LFC W 0–0 Barnsley W

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barnsley W

11/10/2019

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundCumberland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crewe Alexandra LFC W30%

×Draw20%

Barnsley W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crewe Alexandra LFC WExpected goals in this matchBarnsley W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.29

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

1.76

Barnsley W

2.29

Barnsley W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

1.57

3.00

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

0.67

Barnsley W

1.57

allows per match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W

3.00

Barnsley W

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe Alexandra LFC W+0.00on par

Barnsley W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe Alexandra LFC W ↓

Barnsley W →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Crewe Alexandra LFC W or draw

50%

Crewe Alexandra LFC W or Barnsley W

80%

Draw or Barnsley W

70%

Winning margin

Crewe Alexandra LFC W wins by 2+

15%

Barnsley W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Crewe Alexandra LFC W 1+ goals

83%

Crewe Alexandra LFC W 2+ goals

52%

Crewe Alexandra LFC W 3+ goals

26%

Barnsley W 1+ goals

90%

Barnsley W 2+ goals

66%

Barnsley W 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Crewe Alexandra LFC W (draw refunded)

38%

Barnsley W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Crewe Alexandra LFC W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Barnsley W away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Crewe Alexandra LFC W attack 0.67 + Barnsley W defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.76

Barnsley W attack 1.57 + Crewe Alexandra LFC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crewe Alexandra LFC W scores more

30%

level

20%

Barnsley W scores more

50%

Barnsley W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barnsley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff