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Crevillente vs Vall de Uxó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Crevillente
Crevillente
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vall de Uxó
Vall de Uxó
9/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 3Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Crevillente40%
×Draw28%
Vall de Uxó32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crevillente
1.23
Vall de Uxó
1.08

Crevillente creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

creates per match

Crevillente
1.24
Vall de Uxó
0.85

allows per match

Crevillente
1.31
Vall de Uxó
1.21

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par
Vall de Uxó+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Vall de Uxó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw
68%
Crevillente or Vall de Uxó
72%
Draw or Vall de Uxó
60%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+
17%
Vall de Uxó wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals
71%
Crevillente 2+ goals
35%
Crevillente 3+ goals
13%
Vall de Uxó 1+ goals
66%
Vall de Uxó 2+ goals
29%
Vall de Uxó 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)
55%
Vall de Uxó (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Vall de Uxó away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Vall de Uxó defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vall de Uxó attack 0.85 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crevillente scores more
40%
level
28%
Vall de Uxó scores more
32%

Crevillente at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crevillente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crevillente vs Vall de Uxó

Crevillente and Vall de Uxó drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Miralles in Crevillente (Crevillent).