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Crevillente vs Rayo Ibense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Crevillente
Crevillente
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2Ciutat del Futbol Juanfran Torres Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Crevillente49%
×Draw26%
Rayo Ibense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crevillente
1.48
Rayo Ibense
0.97

Crevillente creates 53% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 49 away

creates per match

Crevillente
1.24
Rayo Ibense
0.63

allows per match

Crevillente
1.31
Rayo Ibense
1.73

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par
Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Rayo Ibense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw
75%
Crevillente or Rayo Ibense
74%
Draw or Rayo Ibense
51%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+
25%
Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals
77%
Crevillente 2+ goals
43%
Crevillente 3+ goals
19%
Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
62%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
25%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)
66%
Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crevillente scores more
49%
level
26%
Rayo Ibense scores more
25%

Crevillente at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crevillente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crevillente 2 – 1 Rayo Ibense

Crevillente beat Rayo Ibense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Ciutat del Futbol Juanfran Torres Campo 4 in Crevillent.