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Crevillente vs Paterna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Crevillente
Crevillente
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paterna
Paterna
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 18Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Crevillente41%
×Draw28%
Paterna31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crevillente
1.25
Paterna
1.04

Crevillente creates 20% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 27 away

creates per match

Crevillente
1.24
Paterna
0.78

allows per match

Crevillente
1.31
Paterna
1.26

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par
Paterna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Paterna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw
69%
Crevillente or Paterna
72%
Draw or Paterna
59%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+
18%
Paterna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals
71%
Crevillente 2+ goals
36%
Crevillente 3+ goals
13%
Paterna 1+ goals
65%
Paterna 2+ goals
28%
Paterna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)
57%
Paterna (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Paterna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Paterna defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Paterna attack 0.78 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crevillente scores more
41%
level
28%
Paterna scores more
31%

Crevillente at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crevillente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crevillente vs Paterna

Crevillente beat Paterna 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Miralles in Crevillent.