Crevillente 1–1 Olímpic Xàtiva: Result & Stats

Crevillente

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olímpic Xàtiva

2/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Crevillente43%

×Draw28%

Olímpic Xàtiva29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CrevillenteExpected goals in this matchOlímpic Xàtiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Crevillente

1.32

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.02

Crevillente creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

1.24

creates per match

0.73

1.31

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Crevillente

1.24

Olímpic Xàtiva

0.73

allows per match

Crevillente

1.31

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw

71%

Crevillente or Olímpic Xàtiva

72%

Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva

57%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+

20%

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals

73%

Crevillente 2+ goals

38%

Crevillente 3+ goals

15%

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals

64%

Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals

27%

Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)

60%

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crevillente scores more

43%

level

28%

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more

29%

Crevillente at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crevillente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crevillente vs Olímpic Xàtiva

Crevillente and Olímpic Xàtiva drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Miralles in Crevillent.

Crevillente vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Crevillente vs Olímpic Xàtiva