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Crevillente vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Crevillente
Crevillente
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hércules II
Hércules II
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Crevillente40%
×Draw28%
Hércules II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crevillente
1.23
Hércules II
1.06

Crevillente creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

creates per match

Crevillente
1.24
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Crevillente
1.31
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw
68%
Crevillente or Hércules II
72%
Draw or Hércules II
60%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+
17%
Hércules II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals
71%
Crevillente 2+ goals
35%
Crevillente 3+ goals
13%
Hércules II 1+ goals
65%
Hércules II 2+ goals
29%
Hércules II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)
56%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crevillente scores more
40%
level
28%
Hércules II scores more
32%

Crevillente at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crevillente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crevillente vs Hércules II

Crevillente and Hércules II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Miralles in Crevillente (Crevillent).