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Crevillente vs Eldense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Crevillente
Crevillente
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Eldense
Eldense
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Crevillente35%
×Draw27%
Eldense38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crevillente
1.18
Eldense
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 26 away

creates per match

Crevillente
1.24
Eldense
1.19

allows per match

Crevillente
1.31
Eldense
1.12

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw
62%
Crevillente or Eldense
73%
Draw or Eldense
65%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+
14%
Eldense wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals
69%
Crevillente 2+ goals
33%
Crevillente 3+ goals
12%
Eldense 1+ goals
71%
Eldense 2+ goals
36%
Eldense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)
48%
Eldense (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Eldense away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Eldense defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Eldense attack 1.19 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crevillente scores more
35%
level
27%
Eldense scores more
38%

Eldense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Crevillente 2–3 Eldense

Eldense beat Crevillente 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Miralles in Crevillent.