Crevillente 2–1 Elche II: Result & Stats

Crevillente

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elche II

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 10Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Crevillente33%

×Draw28%

Elche II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CrevillenteExpected goals in this matchElche II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.28

Crevillente

1.13

Elche II

1.28

Elche II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

1.24

creates per match

1.25

1.31

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Crevillente

1.24

Elche II

1.25

allows per match

Crevillente

1.31

Elche II

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par

Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Elche II →

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw

60%

Crevillente or Elche II

72%

Draw or Elche II

67%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+

13%

Elche II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals

68%

Crevillente 2+ goals

31%

Crevillente 3+ goals

11%

Elche II 1+ goals

72%

Elche II 2+ goals

37%

Elche II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)

45%

Elche II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Elche II attack 1.25 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crevillente scores more

33%

level

28%

Elche II scores more

40%

Elche II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff