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Crevillente vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Crevillente
Crevillente
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón II
Castellón II
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Crevillente40%
×Draw26%
Castellón II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crevillente
1.39
Castellón II
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 67 away

creates per match

Crevillente
1.24
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Crevillente
1.31
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw
66%
Crevillente or Castellón II
74%
Draw or Castellón II
60%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+
19%
Castellón II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals
75%
Crevillente 2+ goals
40%
Crevillente 3+ goals
16%
Castellón II 1+ goals
72%
Castellón II 2+ goals
36%
Castellón II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)
54%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crevillente scores more
40%
level
26%
Castellón II scores more
34%

Crevillente at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crevillente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crevillente vs Castellón II

Crevillente beat Castellón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Miralles in Crevillent.