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Crevillente vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Crevillente
Crevillente
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Benigànim
Benigànim
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio Enrique Miralles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Crevillente59%
×Draw22%
Benigànim19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crevillente
1.95
Benigànim
1.00

Crevillente creates 95% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

Crevillente
1.24
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

Crevillente
1.31
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

Crevillente+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crevillente ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crevillente or draw
81%
Crevillente or Benigànim
78%
Draw or Benigànim
41%

Winning margin

Crevillente wins by 2+
35%
Benigànim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Crevillente 1+ goals
86%
Crevillente 2+ goals
58%
Crevillente 3+ goals
31%
Benigànim 1+ goals
63%
Benigànim 2+ goals
26%
Benigànim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Crevillente (draw refunded)
76%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crevillente at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crevillente attack 1.24 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.95

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Crevillente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Crevillente scores more
59%
level
22%
Benigànim scores more
19%

Crevillente at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Crevillente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crevillente vs Benigànim

Crevillente beat Benigànim 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Miralles in Crevillent.