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Creteil vs Nimes — Ligue 2 2025

Creteil
Creteil
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nimes
Nimes
10/30/2015Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Dominique Duvauchelle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Creteil24%
×Draw34%
Nimes42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Creteil
0.67
Nimes
1.00

Nimes creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Creteil
0.33
Nimes
1.00

allows per match

Creteil
1.00
Nimes
1.00

finishing

Creteil+0.00on par
Nimes+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Creteil ↓

Nimes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Creteil or draw
58%
Creteil or Nimes
66%
Draw or Nimes
76%

Winning margin

Creteil wins by 2+
7%
Nimes wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Creteil 1+ goals
49%
Creteil 2+ goals
15%
Creteil 3+ goals
3%
Nimes 1+ goals
63%
Nimes 2+ goals
26%
Nimes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Creteil (draw refunded)
36%
Nimes (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Creteil at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Nimes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Creteil attack 0.33 + Nimes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Nimes attack 1.00 + Creteil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Creteil scores more
24%
level
34%
Nimes scores more
42%

Nimes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nimes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Creteil 1 – 2 Nimes

Nimes beat Creteil 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 30, 2015.

The match was played at Stade Dominique Duvauchelle in Créteil.