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CRESSPOM W vs Atlético Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

CRESSPOM W
CRESSPOM W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Mineiro W
Atlético Mineiro W
4/24/2022Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

CRESSPOM W21%
×Draw19%
Atlético Mineiro W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRESSPOM W
1.37
Atlético Mineiro W
2.37

Atlético Mineiro W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

creates per match

CRESSPOM W
0.71
Atlético Mineiro W
1.03

allows per match

CRESSPOM W
3.71
Atlético Mineiro W
2.03

finishing

CRESSPOM W+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRESSPOM W ↓

Atlético Mineiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

CRESSPOM W or draw
41%
CRESSPOM W or Atlético Mineiro W
81%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro W
79%

Winning margin

CRESSPOM W wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

CRESSPOM W 1+ goals
75%
CRESSPOM W 2+ goals
40%
CRESSPOM W 3+ goals
16%
Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals
91%
Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals
68%
Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

CRESSPOM W (draw refunded)
27%
Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRESSPOM W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

Atlético Mineiro W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRESSPOM W attack 0.71 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.03 + CRESSPOM W defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CRESSPOM W scores more
21%
level
19%
Atlético Mineiro W scores more
59%

Atlético Mineiro W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CRESSPOM W vs Atlético Mineiro W

Atlético Mineiro W beat CRESSPOM W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia in Ceilândia, Distrito Federal.