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Cres vs Novigrad — League #213 2026

Cres
Cres
FT
1 – 0
Novigrad
Novigrad
9/18/2021League #213League #213 · West - 4Stadion Dari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cres78%
×Draw15%
Novigrad7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cres
2.33
Novigrad
0.53

Cres creates 340% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cres
1.67
Novigrad
0.73

allows per match

Cres
0.33
Novigrad
3.00

finishing

Cres+0.00on par
Novigrad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cres ↓

Novigrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cres or draw
93%
Cres or Novigrad
85%
Draw or Novigrad
22%

Winning margin

Cres wins by 2+
54%
Novigrad wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cres 1+ goals
90%
Cres 2+ goals
67%
Cres 3+ goals
41%
Novigrad 1+ goals
41%
Novigrad 2+ goals
10%
Novigrad 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cres (draw refunded)
92%
Novigrad (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cres at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Novigrad away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cres attack 1.67 + Novigrad defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Novigrad attack 0.73 + Cres defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Cres scores more
78%
level
15%
Novigrad scores more
7%

Cres at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Cres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cres vs Novigrad

Cres beat Novigrad 1-0 in League #213 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dari in Cres.