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Cremonese vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
D. Ciofani 85'
A. Paloschi 63'
1/24/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 19Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cremonese47%
×Draw28%
Spal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.33
Spal
0.90

Cremonese creates 48% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 58 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Spal
0.90

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Spal
1.28

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
75%
Cremonese or Spal
72%
Draw or Spal
53%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
22%
Spal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
74%
Cremonese 2+ goals
38%
Cremonese 3+ goals
15%
Spal 1+ goals
59%
Spal 2+ goals
23%
Spal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
65%
Spal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Spal away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Spal defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Spal attack 0.90 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cremonese scores more
47%
level
28%
Spal scores more
25%

Cremonese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
E. TerranovaCremoneseCremonese · D
7.9

Match Events

10'
Michele Castagnetti
26'
L. Dickmann← S. Floccari
59'
D. Ciofani← L. Strizzolo
59'
M. Pinato← G. Gaetano
60'
Paolo Bartolomei
63'
A. Paloschi↳ M. Sala
74'
L. Sernicola← M. Sala
74'
L. Mora← M. Valoti
76'
Nenad Tomović
78'
Samuel Gustafson← L. Valzania
84'
F. Nardi← P. Bartolomei
85'
D. Ciofani↳ M. Bianchetti
90'
Emanuele Terranova
90+1'
D. Seck← Gabriel Espeto

Possession

54%Cremonese

Shots

26Cremonese

Pass accuracy

53%Cremonese

Statistics

CremoneseSpal
Overview
54%Possession46%
26Total Shots8
11Corners3
18Fouls18
Shots
26Total Shots8
8On Target1
9Off Target4
9Blocked3
15Inside Box5
11Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
452Total Passes387
388Accurate Passes298
86%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
18Fouls18
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides7

Serie B: Cremonese 1–1 Spal

Cremonese and Spal drew 1-1 in Serie B on January 24, 2021.

Goals: A. Paloschi (63'), D. Ciofani (85').

Cremonese controlled possession (54%) and registered 26 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.