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Cremonese vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Palermo
Palermo
2/24/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Cremonese43%
×Draw27%
Palermo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.37
Palermo
1.10

Cremonese creates 25% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 97 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Palermo
1.32

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Palermo
1.35

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
70%
Cremonese or Palermo
73%
Draw or Palermo
57%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
20%
Palermo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
75%
Cremonese 2+ goals
40%
Cremonese 3+ goals
16%
Palermo 1+ goals
67%
Palermo 2+ goals
30%
Palermo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
59%
Palermo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Palermo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Palermo attack 1.32 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cremonese scores more
43%
level
27%
Palermo scores more
30%

Cremonese at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese vs Palermo

Cremonese and Palermo drew 2-2 in Serie B on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.