Cremonese 1–4 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cremonese

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Napoli

C. Dessers 47'

M. Olivera 90+5'

H. Lozano 90+3'

G. Simeone 76'

M. Politano 26' (pen)

10/9/2022

Serie A · Round 9Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Cremonese27%

×Draw27%

Napoli46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.44

Cremonese

1.03

Napoli

1.44

Napoli creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

1.18

creates per match

1.43

1.44

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Cremonese

1.18

Napoli

1.43

allows per match

Cremonese

1.44

Napoli

0.89

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Cremonese-0.28scores less

Napoli+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

54%

Cremonese or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

73%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

10%

Napoli wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

64%

Cremonese 2+ goals

28%

Cremonese 3+ goals

9%

Napoli 1+ goals

76%

Napoli 2+ goals

42%

Napoli 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

37%

Napoli (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.44 · 21 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.18 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Napoli attack 1.43 + Cremonese defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cremonese scores more

27%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

46%

Napoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

G. Di Lorenzo

Napoli · D

7.7

Match Events

17'

Luca Zanimacchia

26'

M. PolitanoPenalty

46'

D. Okereke← L. Zanimacchia

47'

C. Dessers

57'

G. Simeone← T. Ndombélé

62'

G. Escalante← F. Afena-Gyan

69'

Leonardo Sernicola

72'

E. Aiwu← C. Dessers

72'

C. Buonaiuto← E. Valeri

73'

P. Zieliński← G. Raspadori

73'

H. Lozano← M. Politano

76'

G. Simeone↳ Mário Rui

80'

D. Ciofani← S. Ascacíbar

82'

L. Østigård← A. Rrahmani

82'

M. Olivera← Mário Rui

90+3'

H. Lozano↳ K. Kvaratskhelia

90+5'

M. Olivera↳ G. Di Lorenzo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CremoneseNapoli

Overview

30%Possession70%

12Total Shots21

5Corners2

18Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots21

1On Target10

7Off Target9

4Blocked2

5Inside Box13

7Outside Box8

Passing

30%Possession70%

257Total Passes622

184Accurate Passes555

72%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1

Serie A: Cremonese 1–4 Napoli

Napoli beat Cremonese 4-1 in Serie A on October 9, 2022.

Goals: M. Politano (26' pen), C. Dessers (47'), G. Simeone (76'), H. Lozano (90+3'), M. Olivera (90+5').

Napoli controlled possession (70%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.

Cremonese vs Napoli — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cremonese 1–4 Napoli