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Cremonese vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
12/26/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cremonese50%
×Draw27%
Juve Stabia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.46
Juve Stabia
0.91

Cremonese creates 60% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 60 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Juve Stabia
0.92

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Juve Stabia
1.53

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
76%
Cremonese or Juve Stabia
73%
Draw or Juve Stabia
50%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
25%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
77%
Cremonese 2+ goals
43%
Cremonese 3+ goals
18%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
60%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
23%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
68%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cremonese scores more
50%
level
27%
Juve Stabia scores more
24%

Cremonese at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Cremonese 1–1 Juve Stabia

Cremonese and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.