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Cremonese vs Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cosenza
Cosenza
1/14/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 20Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Cremonese50%
×Draw27%
Cosenza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.46
Cosenza
0.90

Cremonese creates 62% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 134 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
77%
Cremonese or Cosenza
73%
Draw or Cosenza
50%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
25%
Cosenza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
77%
Cremonese 2+ goals
43%
Cremonese 3+ goals
18%
Cosenza 1+ goals
59%
Cosenza 2+ goals
23%
Cosenza 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
68%
Cosenza (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cosenza attack 0.90 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cremonese scores more
50%
level
27%
Cosenza scores more
23%

Cremonese at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Cremonese 1–0 Cosenza

Cremonese beat Cosenza 1-0 in Serie B on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.