Cremonese 1–2 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cremonese

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cesena

Paulo Azzi 40'

S. Bastoni 90+4'

G. Calò 14'

2/22/2025

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cremonese49%

×Draw26%

Cesena24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.95

Cremonese

1.47

Cesena

0.95

Cremonese creates 55% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 47 away

1.41

creates per match

1.02

0.87

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Cremonese

1.41

Cesena

1.02

allows per match

Cremonese

0.87

Cesena

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

76%

Cremonese or Cesena

74%

Draw or Cesena

51%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

25%

Cesena wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

77%

Cremonese 2+ goals

43%

Cremonese 3+ goals

18%

Cesena 1+ goals

61%

Cesena 2+ goals

25%

Cesena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

67%

Cesena (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 113 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.41 + Cesena defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cesena attack 1.02 + Cremonese defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cremonese scores more

49%

level

26%

Cesena scores more

24%

Cremonese at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Paulo Azzi

Cremonese · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

G. Calò↳ A. La Gumina

40'

Paulo Azzi↳ M. Castagnetti

45+1'

Marco Nasti

46'

Michele Castagnetti

46'

M. Antonucci← F. Russo

46'

T. Berti← E. Adamo

59'

Tommaso Barbieri

62'

M. De Luca← F. Bonazzoli

63'

D. Johnsen← T. Barbieri

64'

Valentin AntovGoal cancelled

65'

S. Bastoni← D. Šarić

72'

M. Valoti← M. Nasti

73'

C. Shpendi← A. La Gumina

77'

Federico Ceccherini

81'

Ž. Majer← M. Castagnetti

81'

F. Folino← F. Ceccherini

90'

Andrea Ciofi

90+4'

S. Bastoni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CremoneseCesena

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots11

4Corners6

23Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target2

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

513Total Passes298

436Accurate Passes210

85%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

23Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2